Three or more of the following predict a severe course complicated by pancreatic necrosis with a sensitivity of 60–80% Age over 55 years White blood cell count > 16 × 103/mcL (> 16 × 109/L) Blood glucose > 200 mg/dL (> 11 mmol/L) Serum lactic dehydrogenase > 350 units/L (> 7 mkat/L) Aspartate aminotransferase > 250 units/L (> 5 mkat/L) Development of the following in the first 48 hours indicates a worsening prognosis Hematocrit drop of more than 10 percentage points Blood urea nitrogen rise > 5 mg/dL (> 1.8 mmol/L) Arterial Po2 of < 60 mm Hg (< 7.8 kPa) Serum calcium of < 8 mg/dL (< 0.2 mmol/L) Base deficit over 4 mEq/L Estimated fluid sequestration of > 6 L Mortality rates correlate with the number of criteria present |